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Company

Confidence Intervals in Experiment Readouts

You can now see confidence intervals and a win percent for each variant within an experiment

A/B Testing

Jake Mor

Co-founder & CEO

Published

So you finally launched an experiment and are eagerly checking Superwall's dashboard for results ... we've all been there :)

Two questions will inevitabley come to mind:

  1. When can I consider an experiment finished?

  2. How much did our conversion rate increase?

These seemingly innocent questions actually require a ton of complicated math to answer. Until now, most customers resorted to using external AB testing calculators but we knew we could do better. Starting today, you'll see 2 new columns in an experiment's readout table:

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Win % and Confidence Interval (95% confidence) in experiment readouts

Here's what they tell you:

  1. Win % — This new column uses Bayesian inference to determine a winner. Unlike traditional methods that just give you a snapshot, Bayesian inference continuously updates the winning probability as new data comes in. This means you get a dynamic view of which variant is leading, incorporating all the data collected up to the current moment. This approach is more intuitive and reflects real-time insights into your experiment's performance.

  2. Confidence Intervals — On the other hand, the Confidence Interval column is grounded in the frequentist approach. It provides a range within which we are 95% confident the true conversion rate lies. This is crucial for understanding the reliability of your results. If the confidence intervals of two variants do not overlap, it's a strong indicator that you have a statistically significant difference. It's a more traditional approach but extremely powerful in determining the certainty of your results.

So how can we answer our first 2 questions?

When can I consider an experiment finished?

You know your experiment is complete when your Win % is greater than or equal to 95%. Superwall places a crown next to a variant when it gets there, but feel free to call it quits earlier if it makes good business sense. Remember – running more experiments should be your #1 priority.

How much did our conversion rate increase?

It's easy to forget how important this question is – especially when you are spending money on ads. Since a higher conversion rate changes the unit economics of your business, you need accurate data to scale ad-spend properly when a winner is declared. To be super conservative, consider your conversion rate might be at the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval. Ask yourself if you can stomach spend in this worst case scenario before scaling.

With these two powerful tools at your disposal, you'll have a clearer, more comprehensive understanding of your experiments. No more guesswork or external calculators; just solid, data-driven insights right at your fingertips.

Happy monetizing!

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Thanks to Superwall, we were able to 2x our iOS app profitability in just six months. It has greatly assisted our growth team in achieving exceptional results by facilitating high-frequency experimentation.

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Really excited about the progress we made recently on paywalls with Superwall. We got more than 50% increase in conversion for upsell screens. This is crazy.

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Superwall has completely changed the game for us. We’re able to run experiments 10x faster and unlock the ideal monetization model for our users.

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Superwall made testing paywalls so much faster. Instead of releasing a new version of the app each time, we were able to iterate on the winning paywalls much quicker. Thanks to that it increased our revenue per customer by 40%.

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Superwall enables Bickster’s marketing team to design and optimize app paywalls, freeing up engineering to concentrate on innovation. As a result, Superwall helped accelerate our install-to-subscription rates, lower engineering expenses, and cured our team’s frustration with the (once) time-consuming process of iterating on paywalls.

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Superwall has played an integral part of improving our subscription business. Compared to other providers, Superwall has proven superior in facilitating high-frequency experimentation allowing us to achieve an ideal monetization model, resulting in a significant increase in revenue.

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Shout out to Superwall for helping us dial in our paywall — made a big impact on monetization, increasing revenue by more than 50% 💸

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Chris Heinrich, CEO
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Superwall increases revenue. Full stop. Being able to test paywalls on the fly and quickly analyze results has drastically increased our revenue and improved our monetization of users. Highly recommend this tool!

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